|
|
|
|
|
|
by mgregory22
4303 days ago
|
|
|
The difference between correlation and causation is merely conventional. Does the striking of a match cause it to ignite? There is no way to prove that it does, only the correlation between the striking and the ignition makes us say they're causal. Correlation is the only way to determine what's causal and what's not. On the other hand, if you want to look at it philosophically, then the only sensible definition of "causation" is "anything necessary for a thing to exist." So what's necessary for a thing to exist? Every other thing in the universe that is not that thing! Pluto causes us to exist right now because it hasn't turned into a giant space goat and swallowed the Earth. Yes, the fact that something DIDN'T prevent the existence of a thing is also ultimately a cause of that thing's existence. Causation in its purest form can help us understand the nature of reality, but it can't help us predict anything. It's only when we draw a line between causes that we can control and causes that we can't that it becomes a practical tool (not that understanding reality isn't practical). So you can see, this whole correlation != causation discussion is pure nonsense. Get some philosophical skill before you try to discuss philosophical issues and stop embarrassing yourselves. Sheesh, it's ridiculous. |
|
|
Or do an experiment - grab a mug and lift it. I claim that your arm motion while your hand had grabbed the mug caused it to ascend. We can again examine the basic physical events, cutting them as fine as you'd like, and we'll see that it really was you with your arm, who caused the mug to ascend.
This is a cause-and-effect link -- when you can show how event A lead to event B via a chain of events, each of which directly causes the next. At the least you need to show that there is a sensible progression from the cause to the effect, in order to claim a causation.
Correlation on the other hand is a description of past observations. You can observe that each time it snows people increase their energy expenditure in order to heat their homes. Does the increase in heating cause the snow? That doesn't seem likely, knowing how heating works. It could be that increased energy demands leads to more coal being burned, leading to larger clouds being formed and lowering the outside temperature. However, even though increased coal burning does lead to such effects, they're pretty small from just increased heating, so we can discount this hypothesis. On the other hand, you can show that cold weather causes snow. Water that falls in cold air crystallises and becomes snow. So there is a definite causative relationship between cold weather and snow. Could there also be a causative relationship between cold weather and heating? Well, assuming that people wish to live at a constant surrounding air temperature of about 20-30 degrees, that seems very likely. There are of course individuals who don't fit that profile, but they are very few (I can't actually provide a study which supports that claim, but just assume it for the purposes of this demonstration). In the end, we can say that while snow and heating are correlated, heating does not cause snow. They simply have a common cause - cold weather.
And finally, if you keep your home at a constant temperature, the setting on your heater does not correlate with the temperature inside your home, because the temperature is constant, while you have to change the setting up and down to counteract the more or less cold weather outside. It does correlate perfectly with the outside temperature, but I'll leave proving that putting your heater on high doesn't make the temperature outside drop by 10 degrees as an exercise.