[vixin]

Not true. They will once they understand the significance of the Westminster parliament losing 52 Scottish Labour MPs which would leave the rest of the UK with a strong Tory majority.

If the vote is YES the Prime Minister in office when independence takes effect (most likely to be Labour) would certainly have to resign.

[vidarh]

As far as I understand, there's only been a couple of elections where losing the Labour majority in Scotland would have made a difference for Labour.

It's true that a Labour government would likely have a far smaller majority without the Scottish MPs, but when Labour has won, it has usually been with far greater majorities than that.

[blueskin_]

It would have in the most recent general election, while the general consensus is that hung parliaments[1] are only going to become more common if not the norm in future.

[1]That is, no clear majority, requiring a coalition government

[nicholassmith]

"If the vote is YES the Prime Minister in office when independence takes effect (most likely to be Labour) would certainly have to resign."

I doubt it, if Scotland votes yes it'd probably cripple Cameron's career, not whoever becomes PM after the vote.

[chrisdevereux]

I sometimes wonder if this was exactly Osbourne's plan

[crapshoot101]

You think Boris wouldn't be the heir apparent in that case, not Osbourne?

[nicholassmith]

Part of me wants to say that gives Osbourne a lot more credit than he deserves, part of me thinks he's probably shrewd enough to have a go at it with some level of success.

[netcan]

If independence happens (I don't think it will), this will be re-writing of borders of a country long term. The political paradigm will adapt.

Long term, the Westminster system gravitates towards a two main party or coalition equilibrium. Scottish Labour will be gone. Maybe the Tories will pull right and cede some of the centre. Maybe Labour will pull right.

[glomph]

This is actually a pretty minimal effect historically:

http://theweebluebook.com/assets/images/uk-govts.png

[gadders]

"most likely to be Labour" - er, what? Ed Milliband? I would say it's 50/50 as to who the next PM would be.