[jmatthews]

I get the "link-bait" virtues of your title(and it worked on me), but the title contradicts itself, literally.

If you want to start a start up, start a start up.

The body of your text also contradicts itself. One of your premises speaks to the luck nature of success. Conceding your premise, the supporting text that follows amounts to advising people to study to win the lottery.

A more interesting treatment would consider time cost, iterative or serial entrepreneurship vs. whatever your win condition is, etc.

[catshirt]

there is no contradiction. what you want to do and what this article suggests you do instead are not mutually exclusive.

consider the (perhaps poorly guided) advice "if you want to go to Florida [i think you should] go to Hawaii [instead]".