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by btown 4310 days ago
If a network of these aircraft becomes a viable alternative to satellites, this could be a partial solution to the imminent problem of growing space debris, whose quantity and danger posed are decidedly super-linear to the number of objects launched into space:

> As the chance of collision is influenced by the number of objects in space, there is a critical density where the creation of new debris is theorized to occur faster than the various natural forces remove them. Beyond this point, a runaway chain reaction may occur that would rapidly increase the number of debris objects in orbit, and therefore greatly increase the risk to operational satellites. Called the "Kessler syndrome", there is debate if the critical density has already been reached in certain orbital bands. A runaway Kessler syndrome would render a portion of the useful polar-orbiting bands difficult to use, and greatly increase cost of space launches and missions. Measurement, growth mitigation and active removal of space debris are activities within the space industry today. [1]

(Anyone remember that scene from WALL-E where they need to punch through the debris to get out of Earth's orbit? It's not too far from the truth, and it would definitely make space travel a lot more difficult for future generations!)

On the other hand, an alternative to satellites for private industry means that there will be a lower demand curve for commercial launches, which may limit the amount of research and innovation that private space companies can support.

But of course Earthlings, in their infinite wisdom, have found a solution to low demand curves: government regulation! So the real question is: can our governments find a good balance between debris-proliferation and innovation? Only time and politics will tell!

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris

1 comments

Relatively low flying satellites are also a solution space debris as they only stay up a few years. The are much cheaper to launch so the fact that they don't last as long is not prohibitive.
Most of your cost-to-orbit is achieving orbital velocity itself. So a marginally lower orbit (LEO is already ~100-250 miles) doesn't seem like it would offer that much in the way of launch cost savings.

Can you substantiate your "much cheaper to launch" statement?

The Falcon9 for example has a payload of 13,150 kg to LEO and 4,850 kg to GTO so that is nearly 3 times the cost (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9). Every rocket I have checked has a similarly small payload to GTO compared to LEO.

The problem is that even though its not that much fuel to get from LEO to GTO, you have to haul all that fuel up to LEO first.

But higher LEO orbits are pretty stable from what I understand. I'd have to look up data, but we're talking centuries to thousands of years for decay, no?

Geosyncronous is a whole 'nother matter, and yes, anything placed there will probably still be orbiting when the Sun goes supergiant. Ponder that.

After some quick searching I could not find any trustworthy numbers on how long satellites stay up in higher LEO. My impression is that it's decades at most, but I could be way off.
Definitely not my area of expertise, but my understanding is that the upper reaches of the atmosphere are quite dynamic, and various circumstances (including possibly solar storms) may cause the atmosphere to reach out further than it normally does. Density of the satellite in question, and extent of any large surfaces (solar panels, etc.) which might tend to increase drag or cause tumbling (a bird does no good if it doesn't point right) are other factors.