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by dirtyaura
4304 days ago
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Experienced project managers multiply by pi ;) http://alistair.cockburn.us/The+magic+of+pi+for+project+mana... I think people should start using confidence intervals. Then the upper bounds become more realistic. If you need to estimate roughly with 90% condifence intervals, then a developer can communicate the uncertainity: I think task A will take about a week. At least 2 days. And no more than 3 months. You can immediately see that it's probably best to either a) work with this tasks a few days and make a new estimate based on the acquired knowledge b) or if that's not possible, try to split the task to smaller subtasks to identify which parts are the most uncertain. |
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