[lethain]

I think many and perhaps most poor estimates are caused by initial estimates being viewed as too high for the project, and instead of deciding the project isn't worth doing at its estimated cost, instead deciding the estimates must be wrong in order to align expected project value with expected project cost.

Perhaps in a twisted future where we estimate project cost before deciding which projects to take on, we might discover our estimates are much better.

A related pathology is trading technical debt for speed, every time, on every project. The debt will be paid.

[markcmyers]

Well, exactly. If I understand the paper, the only condition you need in order to arrive at accurate estimates is the absence of pressure to underestimate.

[x0x0]

You've worked on one of those projects too, eh? I call them pony projects, as in I want a fucking pony...

People have a recurring delusion that the world is shaped by their wants.