[ssmoot]

> 90% of it is your effort in either case.

I think that's an over-simplification. Maybe better put as: 90% of successes required putting in a great effort.

But how many equal efforts did not result in success?

I think it's fair to consider the effort (which undoubtedly is less and less important to success the more resources you start with) a minimum barrier to entry. But I don't think it automatically follows that the effort you put into something is a very good gauge of success. Or even that it's a differentiator between success and failure.