[steven777400]

Whenever I see the "positive" prognostications, I wonder if the author is intentionally spinning a tale for their own ultimate benefit, or if I'm just way too cynical. I don't see any way that the advance of automation can do anything but destroy any desirable concept of society. To me, the future inexorably looks like Detroit or Nairobi, not like Tokyo or Singapore.

Education is a red herring. Most people (and I'd include myself in this) are simply not mentally capable enough to be trained to outperform automation in any task automation can perform. More education will not rescue us.

The future I see is, like Asimov's "Solaria". In that world, what purpose does a laborer have? What strength could even rebels have? When the "top" of society controls machines that will produce, fix, and fight, then they are completely insulated and the majority of humanity is disposable.

[AJ007]

The "top" of society will eventually have no purpose or strength. That may be sooner than even they expect. Technology commoditizes a lot of expert skills quickly even today. Some with great success are finding their skill sets are no longer valid much like kings and princes did in the past.

Start viewing the future as post-human. This is a future where humans are no longer the agents driving economic forces -- any more than other primates are today. Humans conceivably could live alongside sustainably. Or they may go extinct. James Lovelock's most recent book "A Rough Ride to the Future" presents the option of non-biological life continuing on an earth with a climate that no longer supports human life. He does so in the most optimistic way I have heard described. Optimistic, because he previously considered climate change likely to kill all life on earth.

All of this assumes that we do not have a "Great Filter" looming ahead where machine intelligence is totally incompatible with any form of replicating life.

[true_religion]

I'm guessing that manual labor will be a thing of the past, and I struggle to see how this is a bad thing overall.

If the same work is being done without human intervention, why not just give people who're unemployed the products of that labour?

[cousin_it]

Because the entities that control the machines and give their products away will be outcompeted by entities that keep the products to fuel their own growth. Over time, the former kind of entities will die out. This is a general argument, the "entities" could be rich people, companies, governments, AIs, etc.

[TeMPOraL]

You made an excellent point, thank you. This is big.

We're not fighting with rich men in possession of robots; we're facing the entire machinery of capitalism, and this is still probably only a mask of an underlying process that optimizes for growth and competition. So far our goals and the goals of this process are more-less correlated, but in the future those goals may diverge and the process will continue unhindered in a fully automated world while we die a slow, painful death.

I've been thinking about it for some time. I'm afraid that, of all the things we fear, we might end up getting fucked by game theory. Anyway, I recently found a nice writeup on the topic by someone much smarter than me, which elaborates on this problem [0]. (warning: it's long, but worth reading)

[0] - http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/

[zo1]

Some of those general "entities" you speak of are composed of smaller entities. Trade (e.g. of labor) will occur between those smaller entities.

Where there exists scarcity and a differential in value, trade will occur. Now, of course, that says nothing about the people that have nothing of value to trade with. But I'd argue that everyone has something to trade, it just might be of very low relative value. Even in such a scenario they'll trade with their peers.

No matter what scenario of this dystopian future I play out in my head, I always find equilibrium. The key is not to attempt to fix it, but to have base rules that apply to all and will mean basic safety for all. You can't guarantee a peachy life for everyone. Most people just want to play meddling Deity with government money and violence, to suit their own personal ideals and prejudices. That is why I'm an anarcho-capitalist; because it makes everyone absolutely equal and everyone absolutely free to make their own way in life without intervention.

[cousin_it]

Where there exists scarcity and a differential in value, trade will occur. Now, of course, that says nothing about the people that have nothing of value to trade with.

You can have something of value, but still be unable to find a trading partner, if that thing can be had for a cheaper price somewhere else. For example, if machines make labor cost less than a living wage, then you can't survive by selling labor.

[zo1]

Their labor has value to themselves. So they can always go farm/forage for food.

But to actually rebut your comment:

"if machines make labor cost less than a living wage, then you can't survive by selling labor." If machines reduce labor cost, then the cost of goods reduces as well, making goods more affordable for poorer individuals. And consequently, reducing the amount of money required to be able to survive. You have to understand that none of these things function in isolation, but as a balanced equilibrium.

[cousin_it]

Powerful entities can extract more value from a piece of land than weak entities. That means powerful entities will outbid weak entities, and in the long run all land will belong to powerful entities. There will be no land for you to farm or forage.

Labor isn't the only thing needed for survival. You also need things like living space, air and water. If these resources can be more profitably used by someone else, they will outbid you.

[TeMPOraL]

> Most people (and I'd include myself in this) are simply not mentally capable enough to be trained to outperform automation in any task automation can perform.

Well, they shouldn't. I see automation as a way to end slavery, on which our society is based. People in the first world don't see this because their chains and whips are made of gold, but if you think about it, it's slavery nonetheless. We are all slaves to the system that requires us to work long hours on increasingly pointless things in order not to starve. I strongly hope we'll liberate ourselves from this situation with automation and technological progress (though I don't feel confident we will).

[bitJericho]

Hopefully we develop new societies/governments that benefit the "non-working" class.