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by ISL 4337 days ago
> On my first day in (laboratory) research, I was told that if there is a genuine and important phenomenon to be detected, it will become evident after taking no more than six readings from the instrument.

This is the reverse of a rule of thumb I find useful, that if you wish to measure something and get an approximate picture of your uncertainty, you should measure it 7-8 times.

The author's rule of thumb hinges delicately upon the definition of "readings", in particular upon the reach and precision of a given reading. I can look in the sky on dark nights and see Mercury, but even if I watch it through binoculars for years, I'll never resolve the "Genuine and Important" precession of its orbit [1], the first solid evidence for General Relativity.

Some important phenomena are subtle and rare. You can watch a liter of pure water for ~1500 years before you can expect a single neutrino from the Sun to interact and make a tiny flash of light [2].

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tests_of_general_relativity#Cla...

[2] http://www.atlasobscura.com/places/super-kamiokande