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by 7Figures2Commas
4337 days ago
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> This calculation is why I think Uber is still undervalued. The people who say Uber is only worth $4 billion or whatever don't think enough about people like me who will go from spending ~$500 a year on taxis and car service to ~$12,000 now that the experience and cost have reached a tipping point. This is a lazy analysis. Are there folks who will trade car ownership or public transportation for Uber and services like it? Absolutely. But what is the size of that market? How much of that market has Uber already tapped? Sam's post assumes that Uber's current valuation doesn't take into account this segment of the market and that this segment of the market still offers Uber significant growth potential. Maybe he's right, but he provides absolutely no evidence and doesn't even attempt to come up with hypothetical numbers for consideration. |
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Literally everyone. Everyone needs to move around their city. The size of the market is the size of the total city scale transportation market which includes car ownership, taxis, public transportation, good walking shoes, pedi cabs......etc.
How much of that market has Uber already tapped?
An insanely small percentage outside of SF and even in SF its small.
One question you didn't ask: Can Uber get even cheaper than it is now? My guess over a 10-15 year time horizon is absolutely yes when you remove the cost of the driver. I think the state of the world that Sam is referring to is when ubers (or services like it) are the predominant way people move about cities. In that world, who is best positioned to win? Uber.