[slightlycuban]

> ...my thesis was that the Great Firewall is economically beneficial for China.

Not quite.

While protectionism can help bootstrap a domestic industry, shutting out competition doesn't always build an industry that can compete internationally. Worse yet, your industry might get involved in the political process and entrench its way of business.

Look at the Brazilian auto industry. About 50 years ago, Brazil passed import controls to boost the domestic auto industry. Today Brazil has one of the top 10 auto makers (can't remember which), and they export to...Argentina. Meanwhile Toyota--keeping in mind how big Toyota was 50 years ago--exports everywhere.

Building up the domestic market then moving to exports isn't a proven way to build up an industry. Being export-driven first, then focusing domestically is.

(I'm off topic from sanctions here, but there is a reason tariffs don't work)