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by denom 4358 days ago
The "Iron Dome" will not change the current situation in a way that, say, political negotiation will. It's really frustrating to watch the same process play itself out. Throw a few more bombs in, stir the ashes (so to say) and repeat in 2 years. Is the ongoing plan to degrade the operational capacity of Hamas _just so_ that they cannot seriously threaten? Does the Iron Dome entail perpetual open warfare?

It's clear that Israel is doubling down on automation and military technology so that the war can grind on from an increasingly safe distance. They have the tiger by the tail and they cannot let go! So, lock it in the closet, behind domes and fences, etc.

I would hate being stuck in Gaza right now. Can you imagine? What a shit-show. There is no "dome" there, naturally. The bombs come flying in with ease. And it seems like 50/50 that there will be a ground invasion. Supposedly Egypt has the tunnels to Gaza sealed. Maybe Israel thinks this is the time to completely smash Hamas. All this is something to think about while you sit in a basement, for days.

5 comments

I think the Iron Dome is helping to effectively neutralize Hamas and reduce the number of weapons Hamas has, which may help defuse the situation, making it perhaps more possible that Hamas/Fatah coalition will see their best option is in a negotiated solution.

That said, I really hope they don't launch a ground invasion - thanks to the Iron Dome it is even more asymmetrical/unnecessary than it usually is and would only serve to push Hamas back towards more radical tactics, like suicide bombings, and other more radical groups will form in Hamas' wake if Hamas is destroyed.

Hopefully cooler heads prevail. But we're talking about Bibi here.

The overall long term lesson of the events of the 20th and early 21st centuries is that economic development is worth at least several times the same effort put into weapons. (Israel as an organization obviously understands this.)

The "opposition" which is most effective results in the growth of knowledge and economic power. Knowledge and economic power can buy weapons and create game-changing technologies. The human race is still vile, primitive, and tribal, but we are slowly waking up from history. We've gotten to the point where a great many of us have figured out that war and violence have no glory and are just a really bad idea.

Worry less about borders and what it takes to have them and put effort into infrastructure, schools, hospitals, and businesses.

Gaza has no "dome" there, naturally, because if it did (with the big-oil money of their ideological brethren easily to pay) then Hamas could not play the victim card in the global press by counting up the civilians Hamas explicitly puts at risk of cross-fire even when Israel provides humane advance warning. Also given what operates as taqiyya tactics among the ideological brethren on display for the rest of the world, Israel would be unwise to trust that Eqypt had actually sealed any Hamas tunnels that could hurt Israel. Mossad hopefully is smarter than to believe what may be just a pack of Eqypt/Hamas lies in what is actually a monolithic ideology of terror and conquest. (Because, like, well, duh, uh, in a digital age Hamas didn't get the smoke signals from Eqypt a few days ago proposing truce that Israel was wiling to accept.) IDF may be on the ground to find out and fix the tunnel situation if necessary.
It is not an israeli plan. Basically hamas have chosen the wrong side in the syrian conflict, so it lost the support of iran and syria(and maybe saudi-arabia). He also lost the support of egypt due to the regime change. And he is in bad relations with fatah on the west bank.

All this put the hamas with very little political and monetary support and with inability to pay operatives. They are near collapse.

So how do hamas wants to get the support of the people of gaza? By creating a common enemy.

So they shoot missiles at israel, israel has no choice but to respond, political support of hamas increases and the cycle continues.

This appears to be a good analysis of the current situation - http://forward.com/articles/201764/how-politics-and-lies-tri...

It appears the politicians created the current war against the army's wishes, and that Hamas were actually keeping the peace on the ground

This is pretty close to my summation to my gf the other evening

"Every few years Hamas launches rockets at Israel, Israel then uses the opportunity to smash the crap out of Hamas for a few days while "international concern" grows, at a certain point Israel stops the attacks, the international community claims a victory and Hamas gets a bloody nose, nothing changes and it all happens again in 2-3 years"

I suspect sometimes I'm too cynical..then I read the news.

>Every few years Hamas launches rockets at Israel

It's not every few years, it's every few weeks. [1]

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Palestinian_rocket_atta...

> Hamas gets a bloody nose

Is Hamas even a target anymore? In 4 days Operation Protective Edge took the life of 114 people, 88 of which were non combatant civilians [1]. They even managed to destroy a centre for disabled people. [2] That's a quite a big margin of error for one of the most advanced armies on the planet.

[1] http://www.sunherald.com/2014/07/11/5693711/gaza-death-toll-...

[2] http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/12/disabled-palest...

What people never mention is that they only target the sites that rockets get launched from. It's a cheap propaganda win for Hamas to launch rockets from football stadiums and hospitals.
There is an issue of impartiality on your sources (at least the Guardian), it's one of the better newspapers but is still pretty biased towards Palestinians.
Hamas weapons are and have always been the target.

They store these weapons in houses, in mosques, in hospitals in the hopes that civilians die and then useful people like you come and post these comments.

You are not mentioning why Hamas starts the cycle time and time again: a young population (http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_Gaza_Stri...), continuously harassed by Israeli actions that Israel deems necessary for the security of its population. Those rockets are lethal, but also just signs of frustration. To me, this conflict looks like a twelve year old having an argument with a four year old. The twelve year old can harass the four year old with words until the four year old starts kicking/screaming/biting. When you force them apart, both will claim the other started it, and both will, in a sense, be right.

This area of the world has found a local optimum that isn't very optimal and that nobody wants, but that nobody sees a way out of, either.

Go, Bibi!!!!! Stay strong. May God be with you!