[seanblanchfield]

Fair points. We need to provide the source data and a full explanation. We're going to publish a detailed report in August with everything in it.

To answer one of your questions, the predicted desktop rate is based on an assumption that adblock adoption is driven by word of mouth (we have a basis for this assumption), and a compound growth rate is fitted to raw adblock rate data.

It's hard to combine the google trends data into the same model, because it's just a picture of search volume, not total adblock installations. I think it would be a fair to assume that the growth rate of new installations would match the growth rate of search volume, which means that the growth rate of 65% we're seeing this year is higher than it would have been in previous years.

Finally, I want to acknowledge that nothing can grow exponentially forever! At some point everyone who will use adblock will already have it installed. I'm pretty sure some countries are pretty close to adblock saturation already (Germany, Poland, Sweden and Finland).

[ehurrell]

Sounds reasonable, I look forward to seeing the full details in August to get the full picture, but those assumptions seem fair.