[nrao123]

The issue with using a DCF based approach, is that you have to bet only a single scenario whereas if you take a decision tree/probability based model, you can account for a range of scenarios. Here is Charlie Munger on Warren Buffet:

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http://old.ycombinator.com/munger.html

One of the advantages of a fellow like Buffett, whom I've worked with all these years, is that he automatically thinks in terms of decision trees and the elementary math of permutations and combinations....

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Here is a probability model vs DCF based model. Goldman uses a probability based model which can be used to evaluate changing shifts in technology such as Tesla's Autonomous technology

http://uautoinsurance.com/b/tesla-valuation-cm488/