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It's irrelevant to you. Even if 99.999% of risks fail, your chance of success is independent of the the failures of other people. The question you really want to ask is: what's the expected risk/reward ratio? And if you're in any kind of demand for your professional skills, your risk is your opportunity cost (which you can reasonably well predict), plus the small chance of some horrible disaster that leaves you unable to finish (which you can't predict, but applies mostly independently of the amount of career risk you're taking). Then there's the the thing that people get hung up on: the risk that the project will tank, and you'll have an inexplicable gap on your resume. If you're in a place like the valley, this risk is largely imaginary -- as long as you comport yourself professionally, taking a chance on a startup isn't going to hurt your career. Initially, assume your expected reward is near zero. You're walking on to the casino floor, and you're there to have a good time. You want to keep the game going as long as you can, but you're not prepared to gamble more than you can afford to lose, and you assume that the house has the odds. Your calculation is: how much am I willing to lose on this activity? Later, if you achieve some success, you can modify your risk/reward calculation. Is your project growing? Bump the expected reward. Did you raise money, and can now afford to pay yourself? Reduce the risk. Decide where your personal loss threshold is for this particular bet, and when you cross that line, stop. In my opinion, the thing you should worry about is not financial risk, but life risk: is this what you really want to do with your one-and-only youth? It's a much harder question to answer, but a good place to start is: do you really, honestly, truly give a shit about the thing you're planning to build? If not, stop now. No amount of "success" will make it worth the pain you're going to endure. So if what you really want is comfort and a peaceful life, get a job somewhere, and don't regret your decision. Otherwise, proceed forward with the knowledge that you're doing something you have to do, even if only for a little while. |