[pyre]

> If a learning Bayesian filter targets a certain demographic, there probably IS something to it.

I'm pretty sure both Bayes and Laplace would not agree with the categorization of Bayesian probability as some sort of panacea for determining truth in criminal matters.

[sliverstorm]

Yes, it is just probability and not truth. But an arrest is often a "guess" with some degree of confidence, not absolute certainty. Thus is a "weight" or "probability" not perfectly applicable?

Trials & convictions is a different matter, more suited to truth-seeking.

[pyre]

Don't disregard the effects that 'just an arrest' have on people. For example, being arrested for child porn-related charges, but not charged / convicted isn't exactly a no-op.

[TeMPOraL]

Not for determining truth, but the degree of confidence in it, yes. Probability is the tool to get to the truth, if you allow for your information to be incomplete and uncertain.