[lanekelly]

Plague-level is actually the degree of risk we are dealing with in regards to GMOs (not necessarily in likelihood, but in impact). In regards to the famine argument, consider the following:

"Invoking the risk of "famine" as an alternative to GMOs is a deceitful strategy, no different from urging people to play Russian roulette in order to get out of poverty. While hunger is a serious threat to human welfare, as long as the threat remains localized, it falls under risk management and not the PP [precautionary principle]." [1]

[1] "The Precautionary Principle," a paper coauthored by Nassim Taleb of Black Swan fame. Link: https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8nhAlfIk3QIbGFzOXF5UUN3N2c/... Also referenced elsewhere in these comments: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7985787