[rockpoodle]

Your summary is completely false. Did you actually read the original paper or just the article in the link? I know not everyone has journal subscriptions to that might be too much to ask, but maybe you should not dismiss it entirely having read only a summary. All of the parameters in the model are taken from real data, there was no tuning. And there was no parameter in the model that determined how sentence length would affect population-level incarceration rates. The tipping point occurring between 14 and 17 months was an emergent property, not an input. You clearly have no understanding of simulation science in general or this study in particular.