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by bkcooper 4372 days ago
I understand all of this, and yes, plainly in the case of ESP cheating seems much more likely than genuine ESP. My point is that there's nothing in the overall process to prevent this sort of subversion:

* do an experiment;

* get result that doesn't comport with your beliefs;

* retroactively decide "aha, a hypothesis I hadn't considered!" and assign it a greater prior, thereby making it the thing for which you are actually generating evidence.

What I am trying to argue is that this last step is uncontrolled and highly gameable since there's no limit to the amount of possible hypotheses you could dream up (and thus you could keep fishing until you find one you like.) I don't feel that all of the maxent stuff later in the book does much to help you choose priors for this sort of thing.