[J_]

I was paraphrasing. I'll quote you directly:

"How many more decades of zero inflation / deflation are needed"

That's pretty much what you said.

So what if predictions 20 years ago have turned out to be incorrect? That's really not relevant. Japan's government has never said they will do anything to achieve 2% inflation before.

It's going to be a lot messier than you think.

[crdoconnor]

>I was paraphrasing.

No you weren't. You created a straw man and then set it on fire.

>So what if predictions 20 years ago have turned out to be incorrect?

So you're making the SAME predictions based upon the SAME model that the last 20 years has proven to be utterly wrong.

We've already proved that 20 years of deficit spending and the highest public debt in the world doesn't automatically cause hyperinflation. It doesn't even necessarily cause inflation at all.

If your model cannot sufficiently explain why that happened then your model is wrong. And it can't. If we went back in time, you'd be making the exact same predictions in 1997.

>Japan's government has never said they will do anything to achieve 2% inflation before.

Japan started inflation targeting in March 2001. Is 13 years enough time?

[J_]

> No you weren't. You created a straw man and then set it on fire.

I just quoted your exact words and you said exactly what I summarized. You're being a bit ridiculous.

It's actually a pretty simple explanation. The market can remain irrational for a long time, and Japan has never had a monetary policy as insane as its current one.

They are going to DOUBLE their money supply in TWO years. I'm not sure that you understand that massively monetizing your debt has consequences.

It's a massive experiment that is going to end badly.