[steveplace]

His argument is full of selection bias. So, I will select my own evidence to show that he's a crock of shit.

1. Mexico production has been on a steep decline, and production from the Cantarell facility is steeply falling off.

2. We had an economic collapse and oil held at 33/bbl.

3. The infrastructure that needs to be built in Saudi to extract new oil is getting very complicated and expensive, because you can no longer throw a straw in the ground to pull oil out there.

4. There's a huge difference between the marginal value of a gallon of oil for an American vs. an Indian. A liter of oil is life changing for a Bangladeshi, but won't get me further than the next piggly wiggly in town.

Anyways, that's a couple. As a disclaimer, this isn't my specialty so consider me to be a crock of shit as well. Here's some better sources with real data:

gregor.us

getrealist.com

theoildrum.com

They have actual numbers.