[dangero]

That does not seem like a similar case to me. You specifically say "less miners" in #2. Plus what do you mean by mining capacity? If you mean actual GH/s then that's not a meaningful measurement because better hardware in the future will give higher mining efficiency at the same mining cost.

It just seems like you're oversimplifying a really complex equation with lost of potential outcomes. Perhaps this short comment style just isn't allowing you to explain everything. Have you written a blog or anything that details your thoughts on this?