| the market works. Sure. But that's like saying "gravity works". As I jump off of a ledge, I do so with perfect faith in gravity: There is almost certainly a time T after which I will be on the ground! [1] But whether I will be happy at time t > T depends crucially on the actual shape of the terrain in front of me. A 1% slope would be good. A ski slope, perhaps tolerable. El Capitan, not so much. It will always be possible to buy some quantity of oil at some price. For example, although it turns out to be far more difficult than you would think, we can almost certainly synthesize oil from carbon and hydrogen. In theory. But you wouldn't necessarily want to burn the result: It depends on how much effort it took to build the stuff. The important question is: What does the demand curve for oil look like? How much oil is available at each price point? And how long will it take to come online? And even if technology will someday make it possible to run a society of 7 billion people on oil shale, or nuclear fusion, that won't necessarily be any consolation to us. Transition can be a bear. And real-world technology research doesn't work like Sid Meier's Civilization: It doesn't arrive on schedule, and it might not arrive when it is most needed. If a genius tech commentator of the 19th century had gone to famine-stricken Ireland and told the starving farmers that their problems were solvable, that there were technologies that could produce orders of magnitude more food than their current technology, he or she would have been correct. But it wouldn't have come as much consolation, because the agricultural revolution was a century in the future and their kids were starving right then. --- [1] Unless I jump into a hole drilled completely through the earth. Or I manage to put myself into orbit. |
I think the sane peak oil advocates are asking exactly that. It's not that we are running out of oil, it's that we are running out of cheap oil. And that's going to mess up the world economy. Things don't look good when oil goes above $80 a gallon.
But I've heard that we can synthesis gasoline from air and water using electricity from nuclear power. Anyone know what that costs per gallon?