|
1. Not sure I agree with the first point. People hunting for a parking space once a day likely causes less pollution then a car driving itself to a charging station or depot twice a day. Plus, if these are an affordable method of commuting, you're going to be pulling people away from public transportation, and getting more vehicles on the road. If they're more expensive, then you'll just have people buying their own, and then they're in your situation, where they buy an SUV model since it's more versatile. 2. Moving some depots outside the city will definitely help. Yes, some of the cars going into the city will be used for courier jobs, or tourist day trips, but that's an incredibly small percentage. You might have 500,000 automated cars taking people to work. 450,000 sit in a depot waiting for the evening commute, and 50,000 are used for people active in the day. Once again 500,000 people take their car home, and about 450,000 sit idle again waiting for the next day. How does this work as a business? If you use one of these cars for work, you need to pay for 90% of the cost, because that car rarely gets used outside of taking you to and from work. Sure, you could do a ride share with a couple of other people, but still, the few of you are renting that car full-time. It doesn't work. 3. If these can be solar charged, then surely a taxi can be solar charged, so there's no difference in fuel cost. You're paying a driver, and someone in an office answering calls, so there is an extra cost, and I think they have a use case here. In short, these cars need to be on the road all day long, that's how they lower their prices and raise efficiency. That doesn't work for daily commuting. However, they would be an incredible taxi service. Imagine you have a fleet of 100 automated cars, people use an app to set their pickup/destination, and the cars find the most efficient way of organizing the routes and schedule. A car breaks down, and another one automatically reroutes itself. You could give people the option of carpooling with a checkbox. Let people register on the app, and upload a photo. So, you set your destination, and it says it'll be $10 and 15 minutes, or you can carpool with John (25/male), and it'll cost your $7.50, and 20 minutes. This could even happen while you're in transit. You get a pop-up on the dash. Want to lower your rate and share a ride with the person in this photo? Say yes, we'll credit $5 to your account, and take a 5 minute detour to pick them up. Worried about safety? You could review passengers, and only car pool with people that have a high rating and good feedback. I think that's exciting, it should offer lower rates to consumers, and you get to socialize with new people at the same time, so you might make some friends on your next taxi ride. |
I think we'll also see something in between a typical commuting vehicle and a bus. If 10 people in a specific area have regular bookings to go from a two block area to the CBD in a fixed time, then a van will do pick-ups and drop-offs either from houses or from fixed corners (think unmarked bus stops). It will be like demand-based bus routes.
I think we might also eventually see pod-based vans for people that don't want to socialise in any way with others in the vehicle. That said, people cope with the subway OK.
I don't think pollution from driving will be a significant factor with a serious influx in electric vehicles.
2. That's worse than what's happening now. I think we'll see peak pricing motivate changes in schedules and a decrease in the full complement of cars. I also think we'll see companies selling time-share in vehicles so you might buy one of these cars to have priority access, but then earn money from whenever it's available to work for you as part of a network. Those that want to keep one dedicated to themselves could.
3. Staff costs are significant in Australia so here and in similar places, I think taxis will be increasingly popular. Already it's not far off the case that commuting via taxi outside peak times could be more affordable for me with a second car I use twice a day, twice a week. Four taxi trips would cost me $12-17 each ($2500-3500/year). My second car, ignoring the cost to buy it would reach $2500 annually from registration, insurance and maintenance. That ignores depreciation, cleaning, hassle of parking, walking to my parking spot in the rain four blocks away, etc. Take away salary costs of taxis and make them easy to hail and pay by phone and I'd switch so quickly. And I think many people would prefer to travel by autonomous vehicle than with a driver who smells, listens to crappy radio stations or answers their phone the entire trip.