As you mention, it's all about luck regardless. In fact, the previous submission was submitted at an optimal time anyways: http://i.imgur.com/BNCjNwK.png
Actually, for that article, I had made a score histogram for Show HN articles, and it was near identical to the histogram of normal articles. (i.e. Show HNs don't lead to a significant change in the expected number of points). I had removed it from the post because it was getting long. :P
What you're seeing is confirmation bias. There are many, many Show HN posts made, and very few get upvoted.
