"Save the rain forests" has (for most first-world residents not presently part of #OccupyRainForest) a concerned-but-distant feel about it. It raises consciousness without doing too much to cause mental anguish.
Spend some time thinking about how things can fail (not uncommon for tech types, particularly on the ops side), and you start realizing there are a large number of paths to that destination. Some more probable than others.
For complex systems in general, the problem isn't the stuff you've got lots of -- yes, you can fit the human population into the state of Texas with a reasonable amount of breathing space (about 1025 ft^2 -- 32 feet square) -- but what constrains you -- Leibig's Law of the Minimum:
Turns out there are a lot of things humans (and civilization) depend on which are in fairly short order: energy, environmental sink capacity, topsoil, phosphorus, freshwater, and a whole slew of critical industrial minerals for starters.
And it's kind of a downer to think about it.
But ignoring problems doesn't make them go away.
How close is the tipping point? Good question.
I've been playing with some geometric grown and consumption calculations:
Turns out that if you take the numbers for oil consumption from BP's Annual Review for 2013 and plug them in, oil at present reserves, rates of growth, and consumption, runs out cold in 2048. What that actually means is that the rate of delivery is going to start getting choked much sooner, and it's peaked as of 2005 with a bit of a bumpy plateau since. Oil fuels 95% of all transporation, which in Richard Heinberg's eloquent turn of phrase is the heart of commerce.
I could go on about oil exploration capex (Steve Kopits), fracking well depletion rates, and a slew of other stuff, but you probably don't want to hear about it.
Breaking bad news gently.
"Save the rain forests" has (for most first-world residents not presently part of #OccupyRainForest) a concerned-but-distant feel about it. It raises consciousness without doing too much to cause mental anguish.
Spend some time thinking about how things can fail (not uncommon for tech types, particularly on the ops side), and you start realizing there are a large number of paths to that destination. Some more probable than others.
For complex systems in general, the problem isn't the stuff you've got lots of -- yes, you can fit the human population into the state of Texas with a reasonable amount of breathing space (about 1025 ft^2 -- 32 feet square) -- but what constrains you -- Leibig's Law of the Minimum:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liebig%27s_law_of_the_minimum
Turns out there are a lot of things humans (and civilization) depend on which are in fairly short order: energy, environmental sink capacity, topsoil, phosphorus, freshwater, and a whole slew of critical industrial minerals for starters.
And it's kind of a downer to think about it.
But ignoring problems doesn't make them go away.
How close is the tipping point? Good question.
I've been playing with some geometric grown and consumption calculations:
http://consumptiongrowth101.com/RunningTheNumbers.pdf
Turns out that if you take the numbers for oil consumption from BP's Annual Review for 2013 and plug them in, oil at present reserves, rates of growth, and consumption, runs out cold in 2048. What that actually means is that the rate of delivery is going to start getting choked much sooner, and it's peaked as of 2005 with a bit of a bumpy plateau since. Oil fuels 95% of all transporation, which in Richard Heinberg's eloquent turn of phrase is the heart of commerce.
I could go on about oil exploration capex (Steve Kopits), fracking well depletion rates, and a slew of other stuff, but you probably don't want to hear about it.
You're welcome to visit http://reddit.com/r/dredmorbius if you like though.