[sbirchall]

I share your optimism and I'm a big believer that it will not be long before Carl Sagan's "Contact" event will happen, not from the stars but here on earth - my inclination is to suspect Grey Whales, but there are a good few candidates for the position of first contact as we begin to unpack the semantics of other species communication protocols.

I'm interested in your opinions from another perspective however, as I believe it's /possible/ that /intelligence/ has emerged elsewhere in the universe (and as you say the more we learn about and redefine our notions of "intelligence" the more /possible/ this becomes, imho) but I am suspect that we occupy a very unique (rare?) niche that allows for the possibility of technology and I don't think this can be understated. But that's just my gut feeling on that one and who is to say that other forms of life require technology to do the type of things we do? It's an interesting question that makes me think of the Arthur C. Clark/Stephen Baxter novels that are very relevant in this discussion: genetically modified hyper-intelligent cephelopods that lack the essential ingredients required for colonising space - as a result of lacking technology.

[Udo]

It's always difficult to judge from a sample size of one. Some take our apparent loneliness itself to draw conclusions about this subject, but that's a difficult proposition as well since there are so many different factors imaginable - any of which could be responsible for the Fermi paradox.

I think science and technology are probably required in all cases where a species is to transcend the confines of its evolutionary heritage. It may well be the case there are many more species out there with vastly greater innate intellects than ours, but at some point they too have to use tools of some kind to grow beyond the limitations all bodies inevitably have. And it's not just about overcoming specific obstacles, it's about acquiring the meta skills necessary for intellectual and mechanical self-extension. The basic argument here being that minds without science and technology are still in a primitive state, regardless of their innate capabilities.

But it's also not difficult to imagine a civilization where tool use doesn't exist or stagnated at an early stage. However, if the opportunities for this type of advancement exist, it's only a matter of statistics over time in order for development in this direction to occur.

Whether we are in a privileged position to enjoy these opportunities is an open question. We are lucky in some respects: our planet has a large land mass, somewhat easily exploitable mineral deposits, easy access to energy, relatively stable weather conditions, and so on. On the other hand it's certainly possible to imagine planets where conditions might be even better. Or worse. All things being equal, it has always been a good bet to assume we're close to the average.

So to address the issue of hyper-intelligent cephelopods without space technology, yes, that's certainly possible. In fact, we're also not a species that colonizes space. We could, but we don't. Hyper-intelligent cephelopods could likewise have a culture or genetic disposition not to develop advanced tech or go to outer space.

You could argue though that in these cases (which includes ours for the moment) low-tech states are likely to be transient. Specifically, since Earth cephelopods are already tool users right now, it's difficult to imagine they'd stay without technology for long.

[deathcakes]

The point the GP is making, from the books that he mentions, is that being an underwater species precludes the discovery of fire, which is the basis for many technological innovations. It is possible that there are other technological routes around this, but the barrier to entry is much higher.

[sbirchall]

Yes, this is what I was angling for. I think it's a pre-occupation of many of the species in IMBs Culture series if I remember correctly. Where those species that went the long way round (mostly water dwellers) hold species like us in something like contempt.

Apologies to 'jacquesm: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7721134

[Snail_Commando]

I wonder if an advanced aquatic species could/would make use of hydrothermal vents to harness the some of the transformative properties of fire. Hydrothermal vents lack the property of mobility, yet have the properties of persistence and predictability.

If one thinks of fire as a common evolutionary ancestor of all human technology; I wonder if there is, in the same sense of fire on land, a branching point of technological evolution in an aquatic society; a branching point that humans do not comprehend, acknowledge, or notice.