You appear to think you understand these rather complex issues.
Let me address this first. The initial claim that I replied to was that 'low interest were causing loans to be inaccessible'. That claim just doesn't make sense. I'm comfortable my claim that low interest rates makes loans more accessible is correct.
Beyond that narrow claim I'm not nearly as certain.
So why are there fewer new businesses if it is not financing?
Now this is an interesting question and one I don't know the answer to (and I haven't seen an answer too). That might make a good Phd thesis. A SWAG would be that its got to do with suppressed aggregate demand. I don't know if the data exists for Japan in the 1990's but would give you one data point. It kinda of makes sense that new business formation would slow during stagnant growth ... but the opposite could be true. People could be forced to start businesses because the conventional career path is less attractive. Anyway, I have to put this in the 'I don't know' category for me.
Just to clarify I said that low interest rates don't make loans more accessible, just more affordable. I didn't say that inaccessible loans were caused by low interests rates. That wouldn't make any sense as you mentioned.
The Mortgage Credit Availability Index[1] is at around 115. If it had been tracked in 2007 it would have been at 800.
The chart you posted in a previous comment doesn't really address the availability of credit. It just says that businesses are not as concerned about financing and interest rates as other issues. In that same link it reports that 24% of small businesses were planning capital outlays and that 48% explicitly were not looking for a loan. I don't know what to make of that except that, it's not really addressing my point one way or another.
There are many other possible explanations for fewer new businesses:
1. Technology has disintermediated many of the barriers in bringing your service directly to customers, and so more people are becoming freelancers rather than working for an organization. I would love to see this chart compared to rates of self-employment, Kickstarter campaigns, and people who make their living off EBay.
2. We're in a cyclical depression in new business formation. The economy is still pretty sluggish; few people feel they can gamble on striking out alone under these conditions.
3. New businesses are either folding quickly (before the one-year mark) or getting acquihired, because technology makes the feedback cycle of whether or not an idea is going to work faster.
Seem like good ideas but none of the explain the decline of new business formation.
1. Despite EBay and freelancing self-employment has steadily declined from at least the 1970s[1]. I read somewhere once this has been go inning on for more than 100 years.
2. As shown in the main graph of the original post this has been going on since themid-1970s. So it's secular not cyclical.
3. The graph in the original post shows business "less than a year old" so they don't need to make it to the one year anniversary. So this is not caused by survivorship bias.
I also have a very technology focused worldview but we need to keep in mind while awesome and very important it is only a tiny fraction of US employment and GDP.
Let me address this first. The initial claim that I replied to was that 'low interest were causing loans to be inaccessible'. That claim just doesn't make sense. I'm comfortable my claim that low interest rates makes loans more accessible is correct.
Beyond that narrow claim I'm not nearly as certain.
So why are there fewer new businesses if it is not financing?
Now this is an interesting question and one I don't know the answer to (and I haven't seen an answer too). That might make a good Phd thesis. A SWAG would be that its got to do with suppressed aggregate demand. I don't know if the data exists for Japan in the 1990's but would give you one data point. It kinda of makes sense that new business formation would slow during stagnant growth ... but the opposite could be true. People could be forced to start businesses because the conventional career path is less attractive. Anyway, I have to put this in the 'I don't know' category for me.