[TriinT]

No need for references. Probability was started by a bunch of bored french aristocrats who wanted to understand risk and uncertainty. Read what they wrote. They're the original thinkers.

Last but not least: in the late 1990s, Lehman Brothers had a trading desk dedicated solely to extremely unlikely events. That was before the so-called "black swan" theory came along. They made money only once. On 9/11.

Taleb's good ideas are not original, and his original ideas are no good.

[rdouble]

To be fair, the work of Pascal and the Chevalier de Mere does not give much insight on how a water leak may turn into a mudslide. Whatever you may think of Taleb, his work is more of a popularization of catastrophe theory than it is basic probability. He even says as much in his writings.