[cilea]

One important point not mentioned: Japan were alone when the country's economy collapsed in late 80's. Today's China is surrounded with relatively strong peripheral economies (Taiwan, Korea, etc.) The support is there. Also, do not discount black-market economy. It's difficult to keep track of economic progress in a cash-based economy. The strength of China's domestic economy is often discounted by foreigners because of economic activities unaccounted for. The real worry is the aging population and the lack of social welfare.

[logicchains]

While the lack of social welfare could be considered a problem from a moral perspective, in terms of the national economy it's not a negative.

Compare for instance the situation where 50% of elderly Chinese starve after they stop working, and the situation where 50% go on extensive state welfare. In both situations the elderly aren't producing anything, but in the latter they're consuming national resources and in the former they aren't, so from an economic perspective the former would produce better results.

Of course this isn't a very humane way of looking at it, but the Chinese leadership don't have a history of particularly humane behaviour.