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by chc 4429 days ago
Is there any reason to find this claim more credible than "The Flying Spaghetti Monster will provide all the energy we need"? People have been saying that solar is about to take off for about three decades now. They were wrong at every step of the way. Maybe you're right, but the odds are not in your favor. At this point, I'll believe it when I see it.

Until then, nuclear power is actually proven to work and to do so more safely than any comparably effective fuel source, so it's unfortunate to see people saying we should abandon it in favor of a technology that has a demonstrated track record of not being good enough, and thus will just lead us to rely more on fossil fuels.
2 comments
whythehellnot 4429 days ago
We won't get non-trivial energy coverage by photovoltaic panels until they're unfortunately as cost effective as coal/oil. Which is predicted that it won't be until 2030. Most likely the coal industry will exploit their power to hold back said competition with as long as possible. So it could even take to 2050 before coal use will even start to dwindle.

Literally the only technology worth our time right now is advanced nuclear fission. Occasionally hydroelectric when they're in the appropriate location.

I wish people would realise that solar will only be amazingly useful when we build dyson spheres. But we need Fusion AND Fission to get there.

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Hypx 4429 days ago
Solar power has been growing at an exponential rate for the last several years. The interesting thing about exponential growth is that it isn't actually all that fast in its first stages, and easy to dismiss as meaningless. Once adoption really gets going, solar will become very large very fast.
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mhandley 4429 days ago
But nothing in the real world really follows an exponential. In reality, what looks exponential is almost always a logistic curve: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

I'm optimistic about solar too, but even if it looks exponential now, this doesn't tell you much about where it will level off. That will no doubt be determined by how cheap the panels become, and how cost effective storage technologies turn out to be.

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