[ChrisLTD]

I'm bearish on Netflix because...

a) Everyone and their sister seems to have the technology for a streaming video service.

b) They have no shortage of big name competitors like Amazon, Hulu, and Vudu.

c) Content companies that provide the bulk of value to Netflix subscribers can keep raising their licensing fees until Netflix is left with zero profit.

[opendais]

Hulu -> Ads Vudu -> Don't you have to pay way more than $7.99 if you watch a few shows/videos a month? Amazon -> Honestly, not impressed unless they start making it work on all platforms.

That said, I think C is always going to be the anchor that drags Netflix down which is why they started generating their own catalog. If they can get up to a HBO quality of selection/service on their current model...with the same level of original programming...who wouldn't pay $120/year for streaming everything HBO has?

[chockablock]

>who wouldn't pay $120/year for streaming everything HBO has?

For me, the appeal of Netflix in the DVD-by-mail era was a large complete-feeling catalog of movies. They have not been able to recreate that experience in the streaming era, which is why they lost me as a customer a couple years back (replaced by a la carte rentals from iTunes, and a great local video store).

They indeed seem to have decided to become another HBO, with "must-watch" original content, but that feels like a very different business, and one that is a lot more difficult to dominate--they will always be one of many channels, instead of being the platform.

IRONIC, SAD EDIT: That great local video store is in trouble ( https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/save-le-video-a-sf-film-i... )

[markhelo]

Netflix has done a great job building that service and it is easy to underestimate how hard it is to build. Amazon has EC2 and Google has Youtube. There are no other realistic competitors in the streaming service at that scale for now in my opinion.