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by michaelochurch 4445 days ago
It's easier to call out bad and outdated advice (Welch's) than to offer good advice, which the OP doesn't.

The problem with Welch's advice is that it's what successful people say, not what they do. You should pay attention to what unsuccessful people say and know (they're the ones who know the organization's true character) but what the successful people do. Take knowledge from the losers, but copy the actions (often unknowingly competent actions) of the winners.

I'm not a VC, haven't completed an exit, nor am I an executive or technical architect at a brand-name company. At age 30 and an IQ over 150, not being in a decision making role is failure. While I'm OK by objective standards, you should count me as unsuccessful, because I should be leading with my talent and I'm not, because I've picked some terrible startups. You should take advice from someone like me in terms of what I say. You shouldn't do what I do, because it obviously hasn't worked. Cognitively, I understand how to play politics; in the field, I'm bad at it.

Likewise, you should ignore what Jack Welch says but watch what he does. You should listen to what I say, but not copy my footwork. That's counterintuitive, for sure, but unknowing competence is superior to learned, analytical insight when you're in the field.

Basic point: what successful people say about the career game is the socially acceptable bullshit (work hard, over-deliver, never lie, be a team player) that has nothing to do with how it actually works. If they were the type who'd talk about how the career game actually works, they wouldn't be successful. They'd be pissing too many people off (like I do) by telling too many ugly truths.

Welch says: Don't panic. Just get in there and start thinking big. If your boss asks you for a report on the outlook for one of your company's products for the next year, you can be sure she already has a solid sense of the answer. So go beyond being the grunt assigned to confirm her hunch. Do the extra legwork and data-crunching to give her something that really expands her thinking -- an analysis, for instance, of how the entire industry might play out over the next three years.

Terrible fucking idea. Executives don't see a young grunt trying to work on the big picture as "initiative". (I learned this at Google when I pointed to a superior G+ Games strategy.) They see it as a challenge to their turf. They hit back hard, and they have all the power. It doesn't end well.

In reality, overperformance is a lot more dangerous than underperformance. Underperformance gives you about a 30% chance of being fired within 12 months, usually in the context of a layoff that affords severance. If you underperform smartly (and focus on building contacts and skills for your next gig) you'll have plenty of time and energy in reserve to tackle any consequences. Overperformance gives you a 5% chance of being tapped as protege of someone important and a 95% chance of being fired (usually with a dishonest but humiliating "performance" case being manufactured; if you're a star, your job duties will be rearranged so you can't perform) inside of 4 months. Not fucking worth it.

In general, this is even more true of VC-funded startups than large companies, so I don't want to hear the "startups are the antidote" retort. The median VC-funded startup is way more dysfunctional and political than, say, a large investment bank.

5 comments

Somehow you've decided that, despite labeling yourself unsuccessful, people should pay attention to what you say. The only support I see you making for this is citing your IQ, which is meaningless.

You obviously believe you're telling people things that work, and the attempt to help is something I'm sure people appreciate. But based on what you're saying here, either you don't follow that advice, you don't understand it well enough to apply it correctly, or you do apply it correctly it's actually bad advice. So unless you're learning from what successful people have done (not just said), you're offering unproven advice, and even if you are, you're offering advice you don't seem to understand.

I've had a lot of terrible luck. Some of it was no one's fault, most of it was not my fault. I'll probably be a lot more successful now that I have my shit together. But when things go bad for you, you learn what people really are in a way that the ones with charmed lives never really do.

I suppose I'm lucky insofar as I had my bad luck in my 20s, when it was easier to recover than in one's 50s.

Much knowledge can only be gained through misery and suffering. Since humans are mostly defective, it's rare that a person who hasn't suffered, been betrayed, etc. knows how people actually work.

Additionally, understanding how human organizations work is no substitute for real-time footwork. Ideally, one wants both. I have a wealth of the first (and, unlike Welch, I'm willing to share what I know) but (unlike your garden variety corporate psychopath) I'm not good enough at reading people to develop that "snake sense" for others' weaknesses. In the field, that's also very valuable, and it's something I never developed.

To be fair, your idea of "terrible" luck basically means "having to switch jobs several times and making less than $250,000 as a 30 year old".

I mean, I get it: There are plenty of people who are less deserving than you that have been wildly, disproportionately successful. I can understand why you're envious. But don't kid yourself, most people would kill to have the supposedly miserable failure of a career that you've had.

your idea of "terrible" luck basically means "having to switch jobs several times and making less than $250,000 as a 30 year old".

Nah, that's not what it's about at all. It's definitely not about the salary. If you're a novelist and you make even a quarter of that number at mid-career, you're a huge success.

It's about autonomy, importance, reputation, etc. Personal financial stress (which I have suffered, although most of that was because I picked a bad startup, thus my fault) is toxic sludge, but the difference between comfortable and rich means zilch. What does matter is control over one's destiny, rather than being blown about by others' political games, and having the resources to implement one's own ideas rather than being a tool in someone else's box.

Software used to have an R&D flavor, but we've let ourselves become a colonized, defeated tribe. As a consequence, we have to deal with closed allocation, project management bullshit ("story points") and constant political intrusions on the ability to do our work properly.

I've realized (perhaps too late) that it's not my fault, because no one really has that authority based on technical ability alone. One really does have to suck it up and play politics. As I get older, I realize that my negative experiences are ridiculously common. Most people hide away in shame when bad things happen to them in their careers. I won't. To protect the good, I come out, throw down and fight.

I can understand why you're envious.

Envy != resentment. I'm not a very envious person, but I take pride in resenting those with undeserved success. They get into power, make bad decisions, and it's almost impossible to flush them out. They're a cancer. I'm the chemo.

Envy is wishing one had another's unfair or undeserved advantage. Resentment is pushing toward fairness. You're not trying to grab that coveted token or advantage for yourself (that would be envy) but you're trying to expose its stupidity and render it meaningless. Envy is an emotion; resentment is an attitude and somewhat of a social strategy.

My emotions toward the Evan Spiegels and Lucas Duplans of the world (I don't feel much either way for them, to be honest) are irrelevant. What is relevant is that they make good anecdotes, and when they embarrass themselves they can be cast in such a way that they take down other, much more important, targets. Does Lucas Duplan deserve to be ridiculed more (or less) than any other young douchebag? Not really. Should we mock him mercilessly if it casts aspersion on the chickenhawks who backed him? Yes, absolutely.

Seems like you might be living in a bubble. Guess what - you don't have to have won the startup lottery to have personal autonomy, be financially independent or build a strong reputation.

Your reasoning is this:

I am extremely clever and I have a certificate to prove it!

I have chosen an extremely lucrative career.

Why don't people see how important I am? Where is my respect?

And then you say things like "I take pride in resenting those with undeserved success", "They're a cancer. I'm the chemo." and "most of [my failures were] not my fault".

Do you think statements like this foster respect for you?

Would you respect you?

I understand you, I had some experiences when I had to continuously facepalm when dealing with politics, ideas that had a strong push due to nepotism and cronyism, threatening somebody's power by presenting and executing superior non-trivial ideas in a very short time that became the base of the whole operations etc. In the end I decided I don't want to waste my life working for people propagating this way of working and had to completely overhaul my strategy.

I can give you a few advices (with your intelligence you are aware of them anyway though might not have been acting on them so far): 1) start your own business(es) that can be automated to a large extent. You'd spend 1 hour a day running it, making adjustments and in time it would grow to sustain you 100%. There are still a plenty of areas you can focus at, you might have avoided them because they are "easy", or "anyone could do that", "uninteresting" etc. Yet they give you a recurring income that would give you freedom to pursue whatever you want to do. 2) accept (and give) only partnerships when working with someone, on fair terms 3) do a reasonable long-term investing, 80% "stable", 20% risky or whatever reasonable ratio suits you 4) when forced to work on something due to economical circumstances, sudden change of directions due to acquisition etc. with which you can't agree, stop using your emotions there and do the average expected work, while preserving energy and attention to your future opportunities 5) retain your integrity. Compromising yourself weakens you immensely 6) make sure you are on top of your game all the time - get excellent at chosen difficult MOOCs, do some new thing with an utmost focus (arts?), anything where you can get a real feedback about your capabilities and progress

You should understand you hold enormous power even as an individual. Perhaps because of your past generosity or good will you didn't use it or were led to believe that you can't do a lot of things - I think your subconsciousness is rebelling to such thoughts, hence the strong reactions you have. You can literally bring whole companies to the ground if you wish to, or create something unique that empowers others in a good way. Most people become mediocre, uninspiring, "happiness" pursuers, take some kind of blue pill, yet still thinking they have the best ideas, are brilliant, master minds etc. They will never understand what is going on once you start utilizing your mind to improve some small part of life for everyone.

It's about autonomy, importance, reputation, etc. [..] the difference between comfortable and rich means zilch. What does matter is control over one's destiny, rather than being blown about by others' political games, and having the resources to implement one's own ideas rather than being a tool in someone else's box.

Why is that your definition of success?

"Having the resources to implement my own ideas" is daft; I very likely don't have any (new) ideas worth implementing. How many people have lived since the early days of the industrial revolution? Call it 20 billion[1]. How many genuinely useful not too niche machines have been invented and programs written, not counting the same program reinvented over and over and over. Tens of thousands? A million? There just aren't enough new things for everyone to invent.

So instead of new ideas, maybe I/we could reimplement existing ideas - do something that someone else has done, in our own way. But how is that significantly different from "being a tool in someone else's box"?

Elon Musk makes cars, he's got control over his own destiny! He's following his dream! He's not a tool in someone else's box, he's not pushed around by others political games! That's success!

Wait, he's not pushed around by others' political games? Tesla cars have to meet all kinds of regulations. Tesla the company does too, for accounting, finance, taxes, advertising, customer interaction, etc.

The cars have to have pedals and a steering wheel or no customer would be able to drive them. They have to fit on a road, and behave in common car-like ways or no customer would have use for them. They have to look like a car or no customer would recognise what they are or wouldn't want to be seen with one. They have to be petrol, diesel or battery powered because there isn't anything else they could be that fits all the lots-of-requirements.

And yet you say "It's not money that makes Elon Musk a success, it's because he has the freeodm to shape the doors his way!".

But he doesn't have the freedom to shape them his way, he has the freedom to shape them like car doors and nothing else.

A false sense of freedom is a strange definition of success.

You could find as much limited freedom while working for someone else.

[1] http://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2002/HowManyPeopleH...

You're willfully missing the point and your example illustrates it. The Tesla X has an extremely unique door design for the rear passengers. Certainly it has to conform to some requirements. Even if only to satisfy the definition of the word door. That it also has to adhere to regulations and consumer demands is irrelevant. Elon Musk had a relatively large degree of freedom, compared to many engineers at top-down car companies, in deciding how to meet those demands. You can assert that neither Elon Musk nor the engineers are entirely free. You could also observe that they exist on opposing ends of a continuum.
I've also learned a lot of things the hard way. You learn more from failure than from success.

After having worked awhile, I'm pretty sure I'm able to tell the difference between people who really know what they're doing and people who are faking it. I've never been in a position to make hiring decisions, so I haven't had a chance to use that skill.

Terrible luck? At 30 with an IQ of 150, my guess you're making at or near 100k a year.

Man, what rotten luck.

Is it really that much of a mystery? Here's how to succeed in tech. Sorry for the cynicism, but it's pretty obvious if you open your eyes and look around the Valley:

1. Have rich, preferably white parents who can get you into Harvard, Stanford, Yale, etc.

2. Found a company that does whatever (it doesn't really matter as long as it involves whatever's hot in technology in some way), and use your family/school connections to get funding.

3. IPO or get acquired by SuperUltraMegaCorp.

OR

4. Luck into being employee 2-10 at such a company.

Notice, there's nothing about working hard, impressing your boss, company loyalty, etc. You can find exceptions, but I don't think you can argue against this being a common, almost default formula these days.

The cardinal sin: there's nothing there involving R&D, or furthering the state of the art. This is why software lost it's way: it's too timid. We all use the same set of tools ("best practices"), same languages ("traction"), and target the same saturated demographic.

The consequence: every software job requires 5 years experience in $TRENDY_FRAMEWORK rather than 10 years of generalist experience. But, hey, we'll quiz you on hash table implementation to pretend we're on the cutting edge!

We're making our day-to-day jobs worse. Stop it.

> Terrible fucking idea. Executives don't see a young grunt trying to work on the big picture as "initiative". (I learned this at Google when I pointed to a superior G+ Games strategy.) They see it as a challenge to their turf. They hit back hard, and they have all the power. It doesn't end well.

You really need to know your manager. Some are very turf conscious like your G+ games person, but many aren't.

Also there is a difference between a new employee going above and beyond on an assignment and a new employee thinking they already know enough to radically change a product's strategy. There are a lot of super smart new employees who think smarts alone makes them qualified to jump into a new job and instantly know better than the people who have been working it for years.

There are a lot of super smart new employees who think smarts alone makes them qualified to jump into a new job and instantly know better than the people who have been working it for years.

And often they do. I've found a fresh perspective really helps as I am sometimes too close and invested in the existing process. Doesn't make it easy to stomach though...

Liked your blog post michaelochurch on meritocracy by the way..

I think generally people are not seeing the problem correctly.

There is nothing wrong itself with over-delivering or being a team player. "Meritocracy" is easily adopted as a concept (especially by smart technical people I would say), because its entirely logical and also happens to appear the "moral" thing. It is. But, it gets distorted quite often and that distortion is called company politics.

Your goal is not to over-deliver in itself or kiss your boss' ass, or emulate powerful people. Those powerful people may have gotten powerful by stabbing backs all over the place - do you really want to emulate that? I would argue maybe money and prestige ranks higher for people then the tranquility in the belief that they themselves are moral people - but tranquility is high up on the list - if you really put it to people.

Don't even listen to career advice by CEOs or your best friend. Your goal is nothing more - than to make yourself valuable.

Your value may or may not get recognized, it depends on your company environment, but I strongly believe this, it will and MUST eventually - even if you have to quit and go find it at another company or start your own, where you will be rightly compensated by the general public.

>"They see it as a challenge to their turf."

This is a good point. While I believe the "system", in general, works to get people where they need to go and build the right products and services, the internal politics on a person-to-person basis are essentially random; you never know what you're going to get when you step foot in an enterprise. And the associated costs of having a "bad" manager are high.