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by ctlaltdefeat 4454 days ago
>If it were just luck, the “supers” would regress to the mean: yesterday’s champs would be today’s chumps.

huh?

1 comments

If I just got really freaking lucky with my predictions yesterday, then there's no reason to imagine I would get really freaking lucky again. Over time, my average accuracy would become the mean of the distribution.

On the other hand, if I actually _am_ good at making predictions, then I will continue to make good predictions.