[lostcolony]

Whether or not they happened is a yes/no though. It's not "I believe this is 60% likely to happen" "Why yes! It was exactly 60%!", it is instead "This person said it was 60% likely to happen, and it happened. That means this person was right, for a certain degree of right"; we don't actually know what that means.

It may be that they're weighting it based on confidence level (so saying 0% chance on something that happens counts against them, but 49% chance on something that happens counts against them less), but it still counts as a yes/no in that given enough people, and a random distribution of answers, you would expect a subset of people to always be right (though the 'amount' of right changes, this person said 51% chance of it happening, this person said 100% chance of it happening; they both got it right).