[chflamplighter]

I was having the same thought, at what point/how do you factor in the, "if I make this predication, which is contrary to my boss's expectations, will I still have a job". Surely there is a huge amount of pressure on "rowing in the same direction" towards a predetermined group think (which is terrible, of course).

[zeidrich]

There's also the "if I make this prediction and I'm wrong, will it affect me?" bias too.

The more involved you are, and especially the more accountable you are held for your decisions, the more you're likely to second guess yourself. There's normally a reason your second guess wasn't your first guess.