[jodrellblank]

Assuming a direct conversion of calories in to fat, as you do when you talk about eating 40 calories, leads to this quote:

"If you eat 2,700 calories per day, that's roughly 1 million per year, 10 million in a decade. ~12 tons of food in a decade. To maintain your bodyweight to within 5lbs in a decade would require an accuracy of 0.1% in your calorie counting. Under this model, the question isn't why do people get fat, it's how does anyone avoid it?" - Gary Taube's Big Fat Lies lecture.

[gaius]

This Gary Taube is an idiot. Here's how it actually works: you notice yourself getting fat over a period of weeks, and then you correct it over a period of weeks. It's a process of continual adjustment. You don't weigh yourself once every 10 years!

[StrawberryFrog]

No, but I think that you're missing that he's pointing you at that conclusion - that the system is self-regulating to a large degree.