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by spacehome 4473 days ago
I don't see how this can make financial sense. 3% for 20 years totals 60% of one year's salary (or the average salary over your first 20 years in career). Average salary is $48k, so that's paying back $29k.

... however it's actually even worse than this meager sum:

- Salary increases over your lifetime, and the highest earning decades are 40s and 50s, so I the average salary over the first two decades is probably lower than $48k. Maybe this is mitigated by restricting to only people who at least attempt college?

- Oregon has a slightly lower-than-average income.

- People are more likely to sign up for this program the less they think they'll earn.

- Once someone has graduated, they are not incentivized quite as strongly to pursue high salary positions.

- Some loss due to deaths, defaults, emigration, black market off-the-books income, etc.

- Depending on how it's set up, this may cut into the tax revenue to the state.

- It doesn't take into account inflation or the time value of money.

I understand the point of the program is a social benefit to the state, but I think it's useful to examine the reasonableness of the proposition in a market context. If someone offered you a bond to take the other side of this deal, how much would you pay for 3% of the first 2 decades of income of a hypothetical freshman entering college this year? What about a 1/1000 share of a portfolio of a thousand freshman?

1 comments

Average student debt load for college graduates with a BA/BS is approximately $25,000, so the math works out perfectly.
Debt load isn't the same as the cost of school.
No, but it's the same as the cost to the student, which is the point of reforming the student loan system.
No it's not, because you're not counting familial help or jobs on the side or savings. Also, you didn't address any of my other points. This program sounds great because they're actually charging less. They'll need to increase the terms of repayment by at least 50%.