[betterunix]

ASICs are not the solution to the Bitcoin energy problem. If you can devote 1kW to CPU mining, you have every reason to devote 1kW to ASIC mining. Future technology is irrelevant -- every reduction in the power required per hash will result in an equivalent increase in the hash rate.

Note that the current monetary system has a very different incentive structure. If VISA needs to devote 1GW of power to process all its transactions today, and tomorrow a new technology comes along that allows VISA to process the same number of transactions with 100MW, VISA has every reason to reduce its power consumption to 100MW. For mainstream payment systems, power use always reduces profits -- so the incentive is always to use the minimum power necessary for processing transactions and detecting fraud.