| > 65% of that $20b comes from OEMs, which is 100% consumer. No, OEM is not 100% consumer. It's not even half. A large number of OEM machines are sold with Pro preloaded. These go to businesses. (Some consumers buy Pro, but some small businesses buy Home. Assume it more or less averages out.) Last quarter, Windows OEM revenues overall decreased by just 3%, despite the fact that non-Pro OEM revenues decreased by 20%. Why? Because Pro revenues increased by 12%! In fact, the slides even said: "Windows OEM Pro revenue up 12%, driven by higher Windows Pro mix in large enterprises and developed markets." So they explicitly acknowledge that enterprise customers are included in OEM revenue. If you do the algebra, Pro now accounts for 61% of OEM revenues. That means that Home accounts for 39%. $20 billion * 0.97 * 0.65 * 0.39 = $4.92 billion. $4.92 billion in a company that took in $73.7 billion of revenues in fiscal year 2013. For comparison, Bing had revenues of $3.2 billion in fiscal year 2013. |