[spingsprong]

"1. Our species has existed for about 200,000 years.

2. On that basis, and given our present knowledge of biology and evolution by natural selection, it's reasonable to assume that, within another 200,000 years, we will have been replaced by another species who either successfully competed with us, or into whom we simply evolved over time. "

When our species had existed for around 5 years, does that mean it was reasonable to assume that within another 5 years, we will have been replaced by another species?

[lutusp]

> When our species had existed for around 5 years, does that mean it was reasonable to assume that within another 5 years, we will have been replaced by another species?

You're missing the point that our species didn't arrive that quickly. From the perspective of 199,995 years ago, assuming a certain amount of intelligence, our forebears would make a similar assessment -- that they had assumed their present form some hundreds of thousands of years ago. And we have copious fossil records to support the idea of a typical duration for individual species before they disappear.

In any case, it doesn't matter which numbers one chooses within wide limits -- the fact is that our species will disappear, no matter what we do, within, say, 500,000 years at the most -- meaning our descendants will not be recognizable to use, could not interbreed with us, and would not be obvious kindred spirits to us.

We're a transient species, and we're not in charge, nature is.

[kamaal]

That arguments sounds like a classic religious argument against evolution. 'If we came from the monkeys, why aren't currently monkey's turning into humans' like argument.

The answer is evolution is more like a fork/branch than modifications on the trunk. Mutations happen all the time, every cancer victim, is a victim of mutation. But when the gene begins to spread and take root rapidly, at some point we get that gene dominant among a species.

A lot will happen over the next 200,000 years. We will likely change in major ways.

But if you were to take this whole singularity thing seriously we may not even need all that. By 2045 you can live on eternally on the cloud.

[vixen99]

monkey's?