[gnerd]

I find it interesting in a thread about failure you are going to use an example of highly improbable success to highlight what you call vision.

That is a cool anecdote and all but it smells like confirmation bias. I'm sure the one guy who won the lottery yesterday had a vision too. Maybe I'll have a vision tomorrow when I play a slot machine or maybe I'll have whatever-its-called when you dump a bunch of money on a long shot and it doesn't come through (were there no visionaries to see the social graph for myspace and friendster?). There's a line somewhere where a can-do attitude becomes naive and the other side of it is where practical sensibilities become choking to fresh ideas, right now I feel we are in a place where having a go is a good thing but it won't always be that way (at least in our industry).