[michaelochurch]

A 20% failure rate in the first year, to me, doesn't seem that bad. My experience with jobs (granted, I've worked in some of the most volatile sectors of the economy) is that the median case outcome is that it's not worth coming in to work after 12 months. I achieve a lot quickly, but most companies don't really think they need much high-level work. I desperately want to find the 5+ year fit, but I'm not one for self-deception.

When I heard that only half of venture-funded companies live 5 years, to me that sounded like excellent odds. I would kill to find a job where there's a 50/50 chance that it's still worth coming to work after 5 years. My experience is that unless you can convince someone in upper management to take you on as a protege (and that's 95% luck, because they're usually not technical people) you are wasting time after one year. Internal mobility (i.e. the ability to self-allocate to something better suited to one's talents and shine) should fix this in theory, but in practice most large companies do a terrible job on that front: bad performers (whether they are actually bad, or just have a shitty manager) can't move because no one wants them, but good performers' managers won't let them. You have to be exactly 51st percentile to move internally at most companies.