[pakitan]

The signs were there, we all knew that. It's just that hindsight makes you believe the signs meant 100% probability Gox will go down. But back then with the limited information everyone had, that was definitely not the case. At some point Gox's bitcoin price had a 20% premium over the rest of the exchanges. So, if he wanted to get out of Gox immediately, he'd have to buy BTC, withdraw and sell at another exchange. Which means 20% loss or $100K. At that point he'd have ask himself if the probability of Gox being completely insolvent is really that great to be worth taking such a hit. And I don't think it was - the loss of 700K BTC came as a surprise even to the biggest Gox critics.