[Fomite]

If you refer to Table 2 of the NEJM article 'The Oregon Experiment — Effects of Medicaid on Clinical Outcomes', while none of the results are statistically significant, most of the effect measures are headed in the right direction.

Someone who works for 'Bayesianwitch' should know better than to rely on p = 0.05 as the sole basis on which to evaluate something.

[yummyfajitas]

I also know better than to change the criteria after the study starts. A study was proposed. None of the critics of the study had anything negative to say about it until after the results were in - that's probably because they thought it would vindicate the 45,000 number.

[Fomite]

Actually looking at the results isn't "changing the criteria", it's looking at the results in a more nuanced way than null hypothesis testing.

I would have said that looking at chronic health outcomes after just a few years was probably a losing proposition, and asked to see some power calculations, or a longer term analysis plan.

I've done so for other studies. Was actually grousing about one in a meeting...two weeks ago?