[jeremyt]

Despite what everybody likes to think, politicians aren't idiots.

When somebody disagrees with me, I like to assume that they're not idiots and that the disagreement might be based on some legitimate point that I've missed.

The truth is that Bitcoin is an existential threat to the United States government. As long as it's some third tier crypto currency only used by nerds on the Internet, it doesn't matter. But the infrastructure is being laid to push it as a (the) new global currency.

If that happens, we will witness an economic revolution with no parallel in history. It will literally be raining cats and dogs in the street.

Practically overnight, the US will lose the ability to borrow in its own currency, forcing a quick tightening of monetary policy, further exacerbated by foreign governments dumping their dollar reserves. The dollar <-> XX exchange rate would approach zero. Anyone holding dollars would no longer be able to afford any foreign goods. Dollar inflation would be rampant. A recession or depression would quickly follow.

Anyone not holding bitcoin will become the new underclass, and the new rich will be those who got in early. Essentially, the new world order will basically be made up of lottery winners.

Pensions would become practically worthless, as they would need to be converted to the new currency to be spent.

Etc, etc.

That's why I don't have any money in bitcoin. It can't succeed. The current world order won't let it.

[mathattack]

There are a lot of bold comments that you're making here.

Pensions would become practically worthless, as they would need to be converted to the new currency to be spent.

If pensions hold real assets (land, companies, etc) the currency of the realm doesn't matter much, whether it's dollars, euros or bitcoins. Most pensions aren't just sitting on cash.

Anyone not holding bitcoin will become the new underclass, and the new rich will be those who got in early

Again, real asset holders don't care about the coin of the realm. If you own a company, you can sell it to buyers in whatever currency you want. Net lenders may be harmed, because they could get paid back in less valuable dollars. Net borrowers may be helped, because they can pay their debts in less valuable dollars.

It will literally be raining cats and dogs in the street.

Literally?

I find a lot to disagree with your points and hyperbole. The irony is I am fully in agreement with your last point. It can't succeed. The current world order won't let it.

[jeremyt]

The cats and dogs line was a joke. In this case, I added the word literally to mean "usually when people utter this phrase they actually mean it figuratively, but I'm making such a strong statement that I'm really trying to say this time it's for real". Its extra hyperbole for comedic effect.

I take your point that a lot of pensions hold real property, but they also hold a significant amount of dollar-denominated assets. They don't have to go to zero for my raining cats and dogs point to hold, they just have to decline a significant amount.

Your second point is actually missing my point. I'm specifically referring to the transition in which anyone holding dollars will find their dollars worthless and anyone holding bitcoin will become filthy rich practically overnight. Think of it like a bank run. After the transition, business will continue as normal in the new currency.

Also, it is a good point that anyone holding debt denominated in dollars will find their debts disappear. I'm not sure this is a positive outcome.

[mathattack]

Also, it is a good point that anyone holding debt denominated in dollars will find their debts disappear. I'm not sure this is a positive outcome.

It's positive for the borrower, negative for the lender. Same as any unanticipated inflation. In your example, it's just a more extreme case.

I take your point that a lot of pensions hold real property, but they also hold a significant amount of dollar-denominated assets. They don't have to go to zero for my raining cats and dogs point to hold, they just have to decline a significant amount.

The denomination doesn't matter as long as it's a real asset. If it's property, you can sell the house in a new currency. If it's a share in a company, the shares may be quoted in dollars, but they can always be sold in another currency.

This isn't to say that there wouldn't be massive upheaval, I just don't see it happening in the way you do. The impact would be more like the scenario if the dollar doesn't become the world's reserve currency. There would be significant increases in US borrowing costs, and a long term drop in our growth rate. But assets won't go to zero.

[webkike]

You're making a whole lot of speculation here that you don't back up in the slightest.

[jeremyt]

You are correct. I'm not writing a research paper.

I'm simply stating an alternative hypothesis that you are free to accept or reject.

I offer it as food for thought and invite you to do some more research into the issue if you are intrigued.

A related discussion here: http://unqualified-reservations.blogspot.com/2011/04/on-mone...