[throwawaymsft]

This is a debate between someone who is trying to force-fit reality into a scientific model and someone who isn't. You would like economists, they make many wonderfully simplifying assumptions to make the reasoning easier (like the efficient market hypothesis, perfectly well-informed, rational actors), which, unfortunately, are incorrect.

There's many things to say, but just consider that you believe beating the market over a 47-year time period comes down to a standard-deviation calculation where half will, half won't. Just ruminate on that. If you can't see the absurdity of it, I'm not sure what to say.