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by sp332 4496 days ago
Every season the Heidke skill score is high, they did well. Here's an example http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards...
1 comments

A ridiculous measure, because it depends upon the definition of "correct", which is an arbitrary reduction of continuous data to a single axis, and because the scoring is conducted by those who have a vested interest in the outcome, and that's just for starters.

How about applying some statistics, like the probability that a correct forecast (whatever that is) could be accounted for by chance, given the population of forecasts and conditions in which it takes place? P-values have their limitations, but that's no reason to discard them entirely.