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by nousernamesleft
4501 days ago
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Except the number of active users reinforces his point, it doesn't make it invalid. >At the time of AOL's acquisition of ICQ it had 20 million active users¹ Or 40% of the internet using population of the world. >WhatsApp has 430 million Or 16% of the internet using population of the world. 40% is clearly closer to "won" than 16% is. |
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No, because the internet was expanding rapidly, so it wasn't won at all. That's like saying a basketball game is won because one of the teams got 100% of the points awarded in the first minute.
My point is that as "number of happy messaging users" approaches "number of humans" things will get harder and harder for a messaging upstart. Whoever I was responding to was suggesting that there will just be a long chain of succession forever and ever. I'm saying I think surpassing the encumbants was easy five years ago, is still doable today, but will be quite hard in 20 years.