[trout]

Here's a report you can see the current projects with a bit of history: http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html

The potaroo site by Geoff Huston has been running for over a decade tracking address consumption.

Some history for ARIN consumption predictions: Feb 2014 predicts Mar 2015.

Oct 2013 predicts Jan 2015 [0].

Apr 2013 predicts Apr 2014 [1].

Nov 2012 predicts Sept 2013 [2].

Sep 2012 - RIPE out of addresses.

Apr 2011 - APNIC out of addresses.

Feb 2011 - IANA out of addresses.

Dec 2011 predicts July 2013 [3].

July 2011 predicts Nov 2013 [4].

Prior to this it's simply about IANA calculations, though with some algebra some dates could be extracted.

As well, here's a Cisco article from 2005 describing some of the painful parts of trying to predict the address consumption (where they guess 2016 in 2005): http://www.cisco.com/web/about/ac123/ac147/archived_issues/i...

[0] http://web.archive.org/web/20111227105916/http://www.potaroo... [1] http://web.archive.org/web/20111227105916/http://www.potaroo... [2] http://web.archive.org/web/20121122120407/http://www.potaroo... [3] http://web.archive.org/web/20111227105916/http://www.potaroo... [4] http://web.archive.org/web/20110709090704/http://www.potaroo...

[einhverfr]

Trying to plot this it means that the crunch will probably really hit increasingly hard from about 2015 through 2016. You go from predicting two years out to one year out (two years later).

These aren't brick walls but the shortage is already being felt. I know that at Efficito, one of the reasons we switched hosting providers was that we couldn't get ipv6 connections working flawlessly to our backup connections before (meaning more ipv4 space required). I don't think we will ever hit exhaustion per se.